Scientists
Create Models to See How Things Work
These
days so many important aspects of our lives
depend on sensitive technologies. The continued
health of things like communications satellites
and power generation stations is vital
for maintaining our way of life. Space
weather can change that in an instant by
causing satellites to fall silent and power
blackouts that leave millions of people
in the dark. Forecasting and planning for
space weather events is the only way we
have to protect ourselves. To do this,
we need good computer models.
An
important principal in physics is that
most systems, once they are sufficiently
well understood, can be modeled and predictions
can be made by using such models. For instance,
meteorologists who create your weather
forecast use sophisticated computer models,
called simulations, which mimic the actual
behavior of the weather in order to predict
what the temperature and likelihood of
precipitation are a few days in advance.
But weather forecasts can be wrong, can’t
they?
The
same is true of forecasting space weather.
Space weather is very complex and there
are all sorts of processes involved: from
the Sun’s ever changing magnetic
field, to flares and coronal mass ejections,
changes in the makeup of the solar wind,
and the state of Earth’s magnetic
field and upper atmosphere. Because there
is still so much to learn, our ability
to forecast space weather is comparable
to our ability to forecast meteorological
conditions about 50 years ago!
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