| Scientists
            Create Models to See How Things Work  These
              days so many important aspects of our lives
              depend on sensitive technologies. The continued
              health of things like communications satellites
              and power generation stations is vital
              for maintaining our way of life. Space
              weather can change that in an instant by
              causing satellites to fall silent and power
              blackouts that leave millions of people
              in the dark. Forecasting and planning for
              space weather events is the only way we
              have to protect ourselves. To do this,
              we need good computer models.
  An
              important principal in physics is that
              most systems, once they are sufficiently
              well understood, can be modeled and predictions
              can be made by using such models. For instance,
              meteorologists who create your weather
              forecast use sophisticated computer models,
              called simulations, which mimic the actual
              behavior of the weather in order to predict
              what the temperature and likelihood of
              precipitation are a few days in advance.
              But weather forecasts can be wrong, can’t
              they?
 The
              same is true of forecasting space weather.
              Space weather is very complex and there
              are all sorts of processes involved: from
              the Sun’s ever changing magnetic
              field, to flares and coronal mass ejections,
              changes in the makeup of the solar wind,
              and the state of Earth’s magnetic
              field and upper atmosphere. Because there
              is still so much to learn, our ability
              to forecast space weather is comparable
              to our ability to forecast meteorological
              conditions about 50 years ago! |